Of Migration

There’s an interesting debate going on in The Economist, on Europe and immigration. Reminds me of my almost famous *and most importantly, almost Paris!:(* essay who was placed among the mediocrity of a group called best 22. Though I must admit it has a nicer ring to it when added -out of 2000 papers submitted-. Quirky but nice. Anyway, it made me quite happy that I couldn’t function properly that day when the announcement came out.

Of course, right after submitting the paper I planned a thank you speech..you know.. in case I did get to be on stage *had started to think about what dress I’m gonna wear and that it might be best to start rehearsing the speech in front of a mirror*. It would have been my almost Oscar moment, in which I’d be thanking my parents, Paris, and Ratman: a friend and a constant reminder of perseverance and the joy of life, in whatever condition.

Here’s the paper

 An Enlightened Generation – Isya Hanum Kresnadi
*The instruction from the 2011 Worldbank Essay Competition was to write something on youth migration

Who’s Afraid of The Big Bad Globalization?

So your barber is Italian, your eye doctor is Singaporean, your account manager is Swiss, your colleague is Indian, your neighbours are Afghanis, your in-laws are Israeli and your kids are mix.

So your wine is Australian, the oranges on the table are Chinese, your tea is Srilankan and your car is German.

Does the sound of ‘free movement’ or ‘disappearing borders’ draws cold sweat to you?

What if ‘free movement’ means putting your coffee beans on the shelf of coffee shops in Rome? What if ‘disappearing borders’ means that your sister the dentist can open practice in Australia and make triple the money she makes in your hometown? What if your ex-house maid now works in UEA, receives quadruple the money you gave her and now she doesnt have to worry about her children not being able to continue to high school? What if it means you can start your career in finance in Hongkong and Europe with the Bachelor’s degree you got in Jakarta?

Of course everything foreign and new, can often be scary. Fear of the unfamiliar. But let’s be fair, free trade is not an ideology. It’s an option, a mean to an end. And no, nobody ever said that globalization is sufficient to make the world a better place, But it is missleading to belittle its role in spurring new businesses, creating employment, putting children to school, building better houses, and opening communication.

One common misunderstanding is that globalization reduces the government’s power to regulate. Free trade is not equal to deregulation. The General Agreement in Trade in Services -GATS- mandates that discriminatory regulations (which discriminate between nationals and foreign) be eliminated over time, but recognizes each and every government’s right to regulate their own market. So regulate away.

At the end of the day, each and everyone of us -regardless what color our passport is- has the right to improve our livelihood by trade, by moving across borders. And I think no one has the right to deny a person of that right.

So Chinese oranges and Singaporean eye doctors et alors?

This is How You Nail a Negotiation

This is how you nail a negotiation…

1. Know the Jungle.

Do your research, crunch some numbers, because half of the success of your negotiation comes from a good research.

2. Determine your walk away point

 

Good negotiators know when to walk away.

3. Ask for more than what you want

Because you need to look like you’re comprimising as well

4. Flinch!

Break your opponent’s spirit. Just a little bit, because overdoing it will come across as disrespectful.

5. Never show all your cards

      Transparency WHO???

Start practicing on poker and ojek…

Migration

It is hardly possible to overrate the value, in the present low state of human improvement, of placing human beings in contact with persons dissimilar to themselves, and with modes of thought and action unlike those with which they are familiar. … Such communication has always been, and is peculiarly in the present age, one of the primary sources of progress.

(John Stuart Mill 1899, Volume II, 99-100; Book III, Chapter 17, para. 5)

On Grandma and Land Reform

I wrote this for a Economics of Labor course. Yes I was more naive then :) but hey…

http://kafedepok.blogspot.com/2006/12/on-grandma-and-land-reform.html

Conscientious

Conscientious

Synonyms: meticulous, careful, upright (adjective). Governed by conscience. Or careful; a conscientious listener (Webster’s Dictionary)

Have you ever feel like they always ask you about things you don’t know? And when you do know, nobody’s asking you. Hence you feel schtupid, and when you do know the answer to a question you hesitate because you’re discouraged by the first question. I hate that. It makes me sick.  Like I wanna vomit everytime that happens. (Holden mode ON).

Yesterday we had an important meeting, with AusAid’s Indonesia desk. They’re working on this study on trade, development and aid. Basically they’re trying to build a case for how trade can reduce poverty and what’s the role of aid in this whole shenanigans. The result of this study might be useful for Indonesia-Australia Free Trade Agreement negotiations.

SO I, being the only Indonesian, was put there to be the Indonesian face. Sitting on the table; my managers, Andy my American boss, this WTO guy, head of the school of economics, head of school of commerce, head of school of agriculture. Important guys. Was I nervous? Absefuckinlutely. Yes being the intern my job was to do the minute. But as I’m the only  Indonesian, I had a weird hunch that they’re gonna ask my opinion about stuff. Which is awesome, IF I WASN’T TOO NERVOUS.

First I had to greet this AusAid guy. “Hi” he said. “You’re from Indonesia right?” “Yes, Nice to meet you” I replied. “I’m flying to Jakarta on Sunday to do fieldwork.” he said. “Oh that’s lovely” I said. “Yeah, I’m quite excited, I’m a Turkish but raised here..so I’m a muslim and yeah that’s gonna be exciting being in Indonesia”.  Guess what my reply was? “Oh yeah! You’ll like it there. A lot of mosques and stuff”.

What the hell was that? I could’ve said “Oh wow, I’m muslim too are you looking for a wife?”. Haha, NOT. I could’ve replied “Oh lovely, one of the things I miss in Indonesia is the calling of the prayer amidst the hustle and bustle of the city. Something you don’t find here, so I hope you’ll enjoy that “. But no, I didnt say that beautiful answer.

So as the meeting began, and it heated up, I jotted away. Quite weird being in a room where they’re talking about your country. Good stuff, bad stuff. Some you agree, some you don’t (or don’t know :p). But exciting. This work helps me figure out  the context to which information I acquire in college applies.

But anyway.. these academias hey, why do they like to complicate stuff by using big words and not making my job easier? For this I love so much the American colloquialism. Andy, the American, talks point-blank. With simple words that an average mate could understand. And he was the deputy general of WTO.

An hour later the formal meeting finished. But the AusAid guy wants to talk more with the WTO guy and me. Yes the Indonesian had to be there. He then asked me “so what do you think is the most significant  barrier of blab la bla blah..of Indonesia that is unique to…blab la blah…yada yada…somthin somthin somthin”.

I was all; huh? What? Oh geesh what did he mean? Should I ask what he meant? Should I ask him to repeat the question? But would I look schtupid?

And then I decided (which now regretted) to answer away.. “Language” I said. (??)

“You’ll find that it will be a significant barrier. Especially when you’re working with government officials later.” “And infrastructure is definitely a problem. Power supply being the most urgent one. The blackouts recently. And technical knowledge on SPS, TBT, port management (this one I copy Andy’s answer. I knew SPS..but I didn’t know what TBT stands for at that time). For example  A lot of Indonesian export commodities constantly get holding orders by Australian customs even those from big companies. And of course bureaucracy. These e-governance system is really slow in the making. How hard can they be if you hire an Indian or Australian to do it”.

And then they laughed. Shit..was it funny my whole answer or just the last one?. Ogh I hate meetings. I find that getting my idea across is difficult in Bahasa, let alone in English. OH bugger.  I’m not good at live discussions. Can I just say that I’m mute and write my answers from now on. Or instead of live meeting I just do email correspondence.

There were other sophisticated, better thought of answers, in a systematical order and better vocabularies  that I could have given him. Instead of blurting out stuff and constantly saying “stuff” and “yeah” and “you know”. Ah fuck it. I don’t even know if that’s what he was actually asking.

And then we talked about private sector engagement in  FTA negotiations, he asked “so Isya, who do you think I should talk to regarding this issue?”. I answered (more guessing actually) “Hmm Kadin is good people to talk to” (what does that mean??? That they’re good human beings or what? Ay yay…broken English. Then he said “Well yeah, but they’re quite a conscientious bunch aren’t they?”

Conscience what?! who?? What does that word even mean???

I freeze for 2 seconds, and the best answer I could give him was… a nod with a meaningful smile.

Bugger. I hate meetings in general, and hate it even more when it’s in English. There goes my confidence (what with the short supply I have). I feel schtupid.

Reminded me of when we had a meeting with Australian Trade Minister Simon Crean. As we were sitting in the big table oh so formally, Andy told him that we’re working on this IAFTA study. Mr.Minister responded with “Oh yeah, Indonesia is spooked with ACFTA and India is stalling its FTA with us. SBY is suppose to come here next month but I don’t know what that’ll actually means or where he stands on the FTA”.

“Speaking of Indonesia, we have an Indonesian working with us here” Said Andy as he nodded towards my direction, which caused Mr.Minister to turned his head to the right, to the girl sitting three seats next to him (me obviously) and  looked at that girl..giving an expression like he expct me to respond or say somthing to that..and guess what I did?

I raised my right hand, almost as high as my chest, nodded and bowed a bit at the same time (like the jappanese do), and I said…..”Hey” with a smile.

Friggin Hey. When people address him as “yes, Minister” or “no, Minister”.. or “Nice to meet you, minister”.

Crean, on the right

Oh Sindrom rakyat jelata kah ini? Am I being too hard on myself? I try to just laugh about these things.. but I can’t help feeling schtupid. But seriously,if there;s one thing I know for sure is that I need public speaking advice. And that I should stop making fun of seemingly schtupid answers they make in beauty pageants

Wheel Chair & Booze

I’m escaping the Adelaide heat. 41 degree celcius. And yes, because my unit doesn’t have AirCon the best I could do: run to Borders. Sit at Gloria Jeans and (plan to) do some work.

Now sitting in front of me is a crimpled lady in a wheel chair. I don’t dare to stare too long, but I noticed that she cant even lift her head. Hair all over her face,  a cup of coffee capped with a straw tipped on the table. And away she sip from the table, occasionally taking the cookie she bought with one working hand. She is alone. Where’s her nurse? Does she have any relative?

Anyway, I don’t want to exploit or dramatize her misery. What I’m really keen to write about is…her wheelchair. Looking at it, it’s a pretty fancy one. A whole lot of wheels, automatic lever n stuff, backrest control. My best guess is, the government bought it for her. Or should I say, the taxpayer did.

Here in Australia, like in any other developed economies,  the social benefit is pretty good. If you’re a disabled person, don’t worry…the government will take care of you. If you’re poor and decide to not work,  if you’re an eldery, if you’re an indigenous, or even if you’re a crack addict. No worries. Hence most people I see here, who are unemployed/ poor, who have dissabilities (from minor to major), who are (just) old, who are indigenous, who are crack addicts, they dont have to struggle to earn money. Hence there’s no motivation to.. pursue a higher education to compete in the labor market, or…to acquire new skills (like painting with your foot or something), or…to quit drugs. Which, in my oppinion, is sad. It’s an easy life yes. But..doesnt feel right.

Remember when we learn Economics of Public Policy they say “Social benefit can be an incentive for not working”. I think, here, that is somewhat true. There is no need for them to work. The lady in front of me here can afford a 5.50 AUSD coffee and a 3 AUSD cookie. And that’s just her brunch. I know a girl here who applied for a dissability benefit just because she’s slightly injured her foot and now she limps a bot. 

In Sweden, a friend of mine who lived there for a year said “In the year I Iived there, I only saw one poor guy. Who collects beer bottle and sell them for recycle. And he has a house. With central heating”. Here Aboriginals (we call them indigenous Australian, for being politically correct), just go to the nearest ANZ atm and take out the cash they get  from the government (As I saw them during my travel to the Red Center). Which most of them use, for booze. Sounds familiar? Almost like people at home, in Papua. The crack addicts here get money, and are localized in one neighborhood. A pretty dodgy neighborhood that you don’t want to find yourself lost in.

I’m trying to point out that maybe there is something fundamentally wrong with social benefit in cash. In other words, just handing out money, can be dangerous.

But is it different back home? I mean, does it matter in what stage of development an economy is that a cash social benefit might be harmful? BLT, the IDR 300,000 benefit the government  give away to the poorest population. Most of whom have to think hard of what they will eat three days from now (or even for tomorrow). And if one of their kids get sick, there you go…months of saving will be gone. In this stage, most likely the cash benefit will go to buying basic needs. Rice. School uniform for the kids.  That is speaking from the experience of families I know, but have to check on this as well though, what most of BLT recipients do with the money).

So I think, when cash benefit is given to a population whose basic needs are still not met , it is highly likely that the money will be spent to meet basic needs. But when cash benefit is given to a population whose passed the point of fulfilling their basic needs, cash benefit is highly likely to go to Woolworth Liquor, or Thirsty camel.

Why is it so hard for those who decide for the country, to give a more sophisticated kind of social benefit. Less easy, but more effective.

Now, wouldn’t it be better for an indigenous Papua (or an indigenous Australian) to get a voucher for 9 years of free education in a good public school? That is if we really want them to be literate and have equal opportunity in the future.

As for the crack addicts…well…hmmm… that…requires further contemplation.

The Pacifics part 1

Lemme tell you about the Pacifics. Small, isolated, unusual countries.

Meet Niue, population: 1398 and decreasing each year. In 1996 there were 5,194 people living in Niue, 10 years later only a third remains . Most of them who flee heads to New Zealand, Australia, or the States in search of a better living or education. With that much people fleeing, naturally the economy shrank:

“When I first arrived on the island in January of 1999 there were four grocery stores, when I left in 2001 there was only one” (Heyn, 2003).

“in the course of two years, the number of business registered on Niue decrease to almost a half, from 157 to 88” (Levine, 2000)

But check this out: there are no obvious sign of poverty in Niue. Based on a household census in 2002 nobody lives below the poverty line of $2 a day. Unemployment? Hardly any . More than half of those who are formally employed work for the government, 56% to be exact .

But how depressing it must be to live in a country where everbody’s leaving. Your neighbours, most of your friends, even your family..all leaving. What’s even worse is: under the United Nations convention, Niue will fail to be recognized as a nation if the population drops below 1500.

Niue’s agriculture is not so fancy either. Only 19% of the land is arable . And what do they grow? Mostly taro. But the scale, maybe not even enough to supply Jakarta’s demand of Taro Bubble Drink flavouring. Oh and vanilla, they are more highly valued. But still, how many vanillas does the world want to consume? Agriculture is not income elastic remember?

Now meet Nauru, a country that once used paper money to wipe their ass (apparently I’m not kidding). Thanks to its phosphate, in the 70s it was a country with the 2nd highest income per capita (after Saudi Arabia). Due to the declining phosphate price, and fund mismanagement (as in the government splurged on Lamborghinis and invested heavily on a bloody British musical), the economy had a free-falling episode during the 90s. Now the country live on aid. Debt burden? Estimated 7 to 25 times of their current GDP.

And the country’s sole source of income (phosphate) is running out.

And they don’t have any bank now.

And their port is ugly. So they’re pretty much…screwed.

In the next post, I’ll tell you more about the Pacifics. We’ll talk more about serious stuff like scale, trade, investments, infrastructures, and other stuff. For now, I shall get back to work.

sources:

CIA factbook

[1] Niue Statistics

[1] Unemployment is averted by emigration to New Zealand. See, Niueans hold NZ passport, allowing them to enter, work/study, and live in NZ.

[1] Niue Census 2001

[1] EU, 2007

What is it that I do?

When people ask me what I do, I try to sell it..(otherwise yawning is the most reaction I get). Why people dont get excited by “economics” just confuses me. I mean, what’s not to like about trade & development, current account balance, quantitative easing, CDO & MBS, and the WTO :) .

Alrite, so this is how I usually sell it:

So what do you do?

Well, I work in a consultant slash research institute. Our work revolves around international trade (export import, not financial instrument, trade agreements, and stuff).

If the person gives a blank stare, I carry on with “ It’s like this, the Pacific Island countries are signing an agreement with Australia, and they want to know what’s in it for them. So we do a study, and give advice..on the benefit, loss, what they have to do to actually gain from it”

And then the moment of truth..I’d watch closely for a sign of yawning. If I sell correctly, they’d say “alrite, that’s cool! So what’s yourday to day  job?”

“Well, my bosses get to travel to the pacifics and swim with the whales, and talk to people. I, get to look at data and write parts of the report from the office.”

Usually “swimming with the whales” is the attention grabber ;)

So how does my day-to-day activity looks like at the office? (other than sipping 3 cups of caffeine a day, occasional facebooks, twitter and long walks at the botanic garden at lunch time).

I update data, for research projects and my bosses presentations. I get to write parts of the research projects, which is uber fun when I get to analyze things! (that may sound too geek-ish).

Last time I work on a project with my boss, it was about ASEAN-AUS NZ free trade agreement (AANZFTA). I had to look at never ending pages of tariff rates for a gazillion commodities, but then I get to pick which sector I think opens up the most after the FTA..and which sector has the best prospect, and how big is the business value of that sector.

Oh I wish more projects like that will come soon. Huff, because right now..on a slow day like this (has been for 2 months.bugger) I feel like my brain is shrinking..my ass expanding, and my poor kidney exhausted by those espresso shots. So much for “Trade Policy Analyst” (that’s my employment tittle, looks uber cool on my door)

But yeah, I guess I can be ok with that. Because I want to swim with the whales one day. Yes I want talk to people…in the pacifics, in the mountains of South America, in the remote parts of Indonesia. Yes I want to analyze problems, weird cases, and occasionally put a heavy load on my brain to produce valuable advice, insights. Sounds good to me for a future career.

So there you go, I guess have bumped into a dream career path. Thank God for that. Now, I’ll just go back to work…do some reading and think about the whales! :)

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